Its been an exciting
year for high-def fans. More TV networks
are filming new programs in HD, and there are more HD channels to show them
on. High-def hardware prices continued
dropping, making HDTV, HD DVD, Blu-ray, TiVo, game consoles, and other HD
devices more affordable than ever. Both
optical HD formats released a lot of good titles, and thanks to sales and
promotions, movie prices came down faster than expected.
So whats in store for HD in 2008? Here are two perspectives
on what we may expect from high-def in the next year.
Adam: HDTV prices
will hold flat thanks to manufacturers tightening supply, combined with the
2009 transition to digital broadcasts, which will make current analog TV tuners
obsolete without a converter box. HD DVD
and Blu-ray hardware prices will stabilize between 0 and 0 dollars for
most models. On the programming front,
cable and satellite providers will continue to add additional HD channels as
their capacity allows. Studios will release fewer older, catalog titles on HD
DVD and Blu-ray this year until there are more players in homes, though we will
still see day-and-date new releases.
Starting January 7th, the Consumer Electronics
Show (CES) will be filled not only with new products but also big
announcements. HD DVD and Blu-ray will come out swingingand one announcement
has already broken about smaller, laptop-sized Blu-ray drives that will fit in
more laptops. Warner Brothers, which currently releases movies on both formats,
may announce at CES that it has picked a side (I can only assume it will come
down to which side offers WB a bigger incentive package). At the pace the
format battle is going, though, dont expect a side to emerge as a clear winner
just yet.
Sam: I see HDTV makers doing the exact opposite of what Adam
saystheyll work their tails off to attract fence-sitting consumers. As the
2009 switch draws nearer, more TV watchers will learn that their current cable
and satellite programming will work fine without an upgrade, and there are a number
of consumers who are not only happy with their 10-year-old TV sets, theyre
also not interested in ponying up over 0 for a new one. Extreme price drops
on HDTVsat least in the smaller-screen sectormight be the only way to sway that
significant number of non-enthusiasts.
Worse, the current writers' strike might have repercussions on TV programming for months to come if it keeps up; if network TV is inundated in repeats, reality shows and game shows all the way into Fall '08, HDTV sales could very well suffer as a result.
HD DVD and Blu-ray camps have the additional burden of format confusion in
attracting mainstream sales, so studios and hardware makers will
work hand-in-hand to keep prices reasonable and encourage as many new adopters as possible. Im also looking forward to CES, but I think any announcement akin to a WB
side-choice will make a huge impact, especially if this past holiday season shows a significant gap
between installed bases of the formats. Software sales will be the deciding
factor, as Blu-rays installed base is inflated by Playstation 3 game system
owners, who may have no intention of purchasing movies in the Blu-ray format.
And while both programming formats will beef up their high-def offerings through 2008, satellite is going to pull ahead if cable doesnt take drastic steps
to compete with satellites sizable lineup lead. Its this sector that will
prove the most interesting and competitive of them all, and well certainly
talk more about that battle in the months to come. --Sam and Adam
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